Why Close an EWZ Condor After the Election

By Juri von Randow · 29 October 2026 · Free Lesson · 4 min

An EWZ iron condor built for the Brazil election weekend, and why the rebound idea goes into a new trade.

Slightly Bearish on Purpose

An iron condor on EWZ, the Brazil fund, built for the election weekend, October 23 to 26. I personally would have put it on more bullish, probably selling the 44 or 45. But I was nonstop calculating expected values with my Python scripts and Claude: Bolsonaro wins, Lula wins, contested election. Slightly bearish covered both wins. A crazy 25 percent crash was the only thing it would not have covered.

Something for the Nerves

Then the unlikely happened for a moment and Brazil dropped. Something for the nerves. It was bought up, bought up, bought up, and all of a sudden we were at plus 25 percent. A new student had my last hour, so I closed an hour early. It ran further into the close.

The Story Is Over

After the event the curve had changed. The condor turned into a very short-term directional trade that looked a little like a call debit spread. The story was over, so I closed it. In a November contract a dip before the rebound costs a lot.

The Rebound Gets Its Own Trade

The bullish idea went out the next day as a Tuesday Target, a long-dated trade into January. I checked calls and call debit spreads, and the naked long call was probably the best trade. I did not go in myself.

What the clip covers

• This was a really, really fast trade. October 23, October 26. So this is really just the weekend.
• I put this on slightly bearish. I personally would have put this on a little bit more bullish.
• I was nonstop calculating expected values, right? Meaning, expected value if Bolsonaro wins, expected value if Lula wins, expected value if the election is contested.
• It wouldn't cover a crazy twenty-five percent crash. That's the only thing it wouldn't have covered.
• All of a sudden here we were, like, plus twenty-five percent.
• The iron condor all of a sudden turned into a very short-term, directional trade, which pretty much looked a little bit like a call debit spread.

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Iron Condor · Expected Value