Tuesday Target, written up
One write-up per Tuesday Target issue: the thesis, why it matters, what to watch. The full letter with the trade sits on Substack.
- China Large-Cap (FXI): The Summit Week the Options Overprice10 November 2026 · Tuesday Target 46/52Record inflows, a Trump-Xi summit and China tech earnings in one week; why FXI's options charge more for the drama than the fund usually delivers.
- The Dow (DIA): Fencing the Quietest Index on the Tape3 November 2026 · Tuesday Target 45/52Why the Dow sat still while tech cracked, why its options price more motion than it shows, and what November's prints mean for a range trade.
- Brazil (EWZ) and the Crash Its Options Ignored27 October 2026 · Tuesday Target 44/52How a surprise Lula win crashed Brazil's EWZ fund, why its options stayed calm, and what a small long call on the rebound needs.
- Taking the Other Side of a Put Stampede (SPY)20 October 2026 · Tuesday Target 43/52Why a stampede into index puts leaves SPY's December options expensive, and how a lopsided iron condor collects from the panic.
- Gold Trust (GLD): Trend Funds Left and the Central Banks Stayed13 October 2026 · Tuesday Target 42/52Why empty trend books, steady central bank buying and cheap options turn the gold slide into a case for a defined-risk call spread on GLD.
- Long Bonds (TLT): Selling Storm Prices Into a Drizzle6 October 2026 · Tuesday Target 41/52Long Treasury options price a crash the tape refuses to deliver; why that gap exists, how an iron condor sells it, and the prints that could end it.
- Energy Stocks (XLE): The Ceiling, the Floor and the Rent Between29 September 2026 · Tuesday Target 40/52Why oil's managed ceiling and a shut strait's floor leave XLE range-bound with rich option premium, and what could break the range.
Get the next Tuesday Target free
One options trade. Every Tuesday. Scored in public. The exit rule is on the card, and the letter is free to read.
2026
- Shopify (SHOP): The Merchant That Let the Shopping Agents In22 September 2026 · Tuesday Target 39/52Shopify (SHOP) and the shopping-agent fight with Amazon: why a discounted rebound suits a defined-risk options spread.
- US Oil (USO): The Barrel Nobody Can Download15 September 2026 · Tuesday Target 38/52US Oil (USO) as Gulf chokepoints close while the AI trade stumbles: why crude volatility looks mispriced and what an options trader watches next.
- ExxonMobil (XOM): Collecting a War Premium on a Quiet Chart8 September 2026 · Tuesday Target 37/52ExxonMobil (XOM) against costly crude, record diesel and rising long yields: what the letter argues about energy volatility and what to watch next.
- Amplitude (AMPL): The Shopper Leaving the Store Is a Bot1 September 2026 · Tuesday Target 36/52Amplitude (AMPL) as AI shopping agents kill old marketing tricks: the analytics layer they need, Warsh's September, and the prints that decide it.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): Capital Has a Price Again, So Does Fear25 August 2026 · Tuesday Target 35/52CrowdStrike (CRWD) as free money ends: what higher yields, an AI compute bill and a Jackson Hole week mean for pricing fear into earnings options.
- Long Treasuries (TLT): Exhausted Sellers, Capped Rallies18 August 2026 · Tuesday Target 34/52How AI borrowing crowds the Treasury market, why exhausted bond bears leave TLT range-bound, and what that means for options premium.
- Devon Energy (DVN): The Boring Middle Nobody Wants to Own11 August 2026 · Tuesday Target 33/52Devon Energy (DVN) with the petroleum reserve at its floor: why energy options overprice drama and how a range trade collects from the standoff.
- First Solar (FSLR): Panic Priced While the Pilots Step Away4 August 2026 · Tuesday Target 32/52Why First Solar's option premium stays fat after its round trip, how the policy hand-off and yen rescue feed it, and what a tariff ruling could do.
- S&P 500 (SPY): Renting the Nap Before the Reload28 July 2026 · Tuesday Target 31/52SPY and why the Gulf strike pause, AI debt and a coin-toss Fed leave index volatility cheap ahead of the midterm chop.
- Brazil (EWZ): Rent From a Standoff While the Pentagon Put Frays21 July 2026 · Tuesday Target 30/52Why a market leaning on a single backstop, a Hormuz oil shock and a Brazil ETF stuck in a moving-average tangle add up to an options angle on EWZ.
- Korea (EWY): The Toll Booth After the Bypass Opens14 July 2026 · Tuesday Target 29/52Korea (EWY) as a toll collector losing traffic to the SK Hynix bypass, and why post-flush option premium looks rich to my models.
- Long Treasuries (TLT): Why the Crowded Lifeboat Sinks First7 July 2026 · Tuesday Target 28/52Long Treasuries (TLT) and the disinflation case behind a crowded Fed-hike consensus: wages, oil, Warsh's Fed and what options traders misprice.
- BlackBerry (BB): Motion Mistaken for Control30 June 2026 · Tuesday Target 27/52BlackBerry (BB) went parabolic while Hormuz, Warsh and Beijing showed how little anyone controls; what rich premium means for patient traders.
- ServiceNow (NOW): The Spender the Market Rounded Down23 June 2026 · Tuesday Target 26/52The AI spender versus chipmaker split cannot hold, tech volatility has replaced bond fear, and ServiceNow's cheap floor stands out.
- Samsara (IOT): Drifting Back While the Fox Runs Loose16 June 2026 · Tuesday Target 25/52Samsara after the SaaS panic, why a napping VIX hides leveraged plumbing, and how defined-risk options fit a stock drifting toward fair value.
- Micron (MU): Big Tech Passes the Hat9 June 2026 · Tuesday Target 24/52Why Big Tech's swing from buybacks to share sales changes the case for Micron (MU) options, and what memory scarcity still protects.
- Korea (EWY): The Scarcity Treadmill Needs a New Part2 June 2026 · Tuesday Target 23/52Why the AI rally is a hunt for manufactured scarcity, and how a double calendar on EWY's memory-driven parabola handles a month crammed with catalysts.
- Nvidia (NVDA): The Memory Cartel Cracks While Everyone Watches Iran26 May 2026 · Tuesday Target 22/52Why cheap Chinese DRAM out of Hefei matters more to Nvidia than Iran headlines, and how a hated rally shapes the options structure.
- 20+ Year Treasuries (TLT): Paid to Wait While the Long Bond Breaks19 May 2026 · Tuesday Target 21/52TLT after the long bond broke five percent: dictator economics and AI bubble math collide in Treasuries, and what that does to bond option premium.
- Silver (SLV): Three Side Tables and a Broken Triangle12 May 2026 · Tuesday Target 20/52Silver's triangle breakout read through Bibi's uranium claim, Pakistan's hidden planes and the Beijing photo-op, and why the convexity is cheap.
- JetBlue Airways (JBLU): A Temporary Tax on a Permanent Route Grab5 May 2026 · Tuesday Target 19/52Why an oil panic priced as permanent misreads JetBlue's Spirit route grab, and how a long-dated call spread turns that mismatch into defined risk.
- US Oil (USO): Selling the Stalemate While the Fairy Tales Fight28 April 2026 · Tuesday Target 18/52Promised money holds up the AI tape while oil sits in a chop zone neither side can afford to end; how options price that stalemate.
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): The Bluff That Expired in the Strait21 April 2026 · Tuesday Target 17/52How Iran's Hormuz threat backfired on Tehran and Beijing, and why post-failure volatility puts the ASTS pain trade above the market.
- Crude Oil Futures (/CL): Lifeboats, Blockades and a Fat Fear Premium14 April 2026 · Tuesday Target 16/52How a mechanical rally, a timed Hormuz blockade and banks hedging their own product leave crude carrying the market's fattest fear premium.
- Zscaler (ZS): Racing the Knife After the Quiet Crash7 April 2026 · Tuesday Target 15/52Zscaler after the tech de-rating: why the crash already happened, how the Iran shot clock feeds a squeeze, and how defined-risk calls fit.
- NextEra Energy (NEE): Peak Fear, Wrong Continent, Boring Upside31 March 2026 · Tuesday Target 14/52Why exhausted sellers, falling yields and an insulated China turn a Hormuz oil shock into a case for a boring utility with asymmetric options upside.
- Financial Sector ETF (XLF): Where the Hormuz Dominoes Land24 March 2026 · Tuesday Target 13/52Why Hormuz's closure is crushing gold and starving chip fabs, and why washed-out financials via XLF can steady on stress merely ceasing to worsen.
- United States Oil (USO): Fear Priced Like a War That Never Starts17 March 2026 · Tuesday Target 12/52Why crash insurance props up the index, why oil volatility outruns the Hormuz standoff, and what the range in USO says before triple witching.
- CF Industries (CF): Fertilizer Outlasts the Headline Tape10 March 2026 · Tuesday Target 11/52Why a nitrogen producer on cheap U.S. gas matters more than crude's headline whipsaw, and what the Hormuz fertilizer squeeze means for option traders.
- Short-Term Treasuries (SGOV): Timing the Exit Before the Crack3 March 2026 · Tuesday Target 10/52Why short-dated Treasuries become the position when an oil countdown collides with cracking credit, and what the calendar says next.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Refund Cheques Meet the Software Assassins24 February 2026 · Tuesday Target 9/52Why a struck-down tariff turns into stimulus, why AI is hunting software incumbents, and what a gamma-free tape means for Nvidia earnings options.
- Adobe (ADBE): Stacked Panics and the Wrecking Ball17 February 2026 · Tuesday Target 8/52Why the dollar bears and the bond market's AI disinflation trade collide on Adobe's option chain, and what the macro calendar tests next.
- Microsoft (MSFT): The Seat Dies, the Compute Survives10 February 2026 · Tuesday Target 7/52Why AI agents kill per-seat software, why Microsoft got thrown out with it, and how panic premium in the option chain shapes the play.
- MP Materials (MP): The Alibi Needs a Stockpile3 February 2026 · Tuesday Target 6/52How Project Vault and the AI alibi put a state floor under critical minerals, and what that does to the downside risk in MP Materials options.
- Salesforce (CRM): Record Software Shorts Meet a Fed Faking Calm27 January 2026 · Tuesday Target 5/52Why a Fed rate check, a private credit markdown and a silver squeeze turn record hedge fund shorts in software into a coiled spring for Salesforce.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): The Creditors Hold the Detonator20 January 2026 · Tuesday Target 4/52How Europe and Japan could drain US liquidity, why the small cap rally rests on retail buying, and what IWM gamma offers when vol sleeps.
- Crude Oil Futures (/CL): Collateral Hunting Behind the Fed Fight13 January 2026 · Tuesday Target 3/52Why Shadow QE through Fannie and Freddie and a resource-grabbing White House leave crude fully priced, and what options traders can read from it.
- Micron Technology (MU): Hardware Momentum With a Parachute6 January 2026 · Tuesday Target 2/52Why Micron's rally tracks real chip orders, how ProSec reshapes the tape, and why cheap tech volatility pays for a parachute.
2025
- Nvidia (NVDA): Printed Dollars Against a Grid That Can't Keep Up30 December 2025 · Tuesday Target 1/52How price-capped power auctions and fast money growth prop up the AI capex cycle, and what that means for holding Nvidia (NVDA) through options.
- Silver (SLV): Record Inflows, Flat Tape, Bags Changing Hands23 December 2025 · Tuesday Target 52/52Record inflows into silver against a flat price read as distribution, and a thin holiday tape changes how an options trader handles SLV.
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): A Miner Standing in the Fire Exit16 December 2025 · Tuesday Target 51/52Why a bitcoin miner turns into an indirect hedge when ETF inflows pause, equities sleepwalk and credit desks quietly buy protection.
- US Natural Gas (UNG): Widow Maker Meets Stealth Liquidity9 December 2025 · Tuesday Target 50/52Why a stealth repo backstop, rising yields and cheap implied volatility make US natural gas (UNG) a mean-reversion setup worth understanding.
- China Internet (KWEB): The Floor Holds Until Tokyo Speaks2 December 2025 · Tuesday Target 49/52Why a Bank of Japan hike before Christmas outranks Black Friday records, and how a half-size KWEB put spread respects a floor built by flows.
- Brazil (EWZ): The Narrow Doorframe Called Liquidity25 November 2025 · Tuesday Target 48/52Why EWZ sits at the shared liquidity exit for a divided Fed, debt-funded AI capex and Bitcoin, and what the options tape says about the crowd.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY): The Overnight Rate Runs the AI Trade18 November 2025 · Tuesday Target 47/52Why the AI wobble traces back to overnight funding costs, how returning reserves loosen leverage, and where a turning pharma chart fits the rotation.
- Long Treasuries (TLT): The State Lends, the Pipes Refill11 November 2025 · Tuesday Target 46/52Why federal nuclear credit, paused QT and a reopened Treasury build a bid for TLT, and what an options desk waits for before trading the range.
- U.S. Oil (USO): The Flood Behind the Dam and the Calm in Crude4 November 2025 · Tuesday Target 45/52Repo stress masks a Treasury cash hoard poised to flood back into markets, and why boxed-in crude in USO is where that calm gets sold.
- Bitcoin (IBIT): Why a Peace Deal Can Slingshot a Hated Chart28 October 2025 · Tuesday Target 44/52How a US-China truce can set off a dealer-hedging squeeze, why vol rising with price rewires the options math, and where Bitcoin (IBIT) fits.
- Technology Select (XLK): The Santa Rally Runs on Borrowed Money21 October 2025 · Tuesday Target 43/52Why the year-end tech rally rides on leverage, buybacks and retail gamma, and how the private-credit cash box could turn XLK into the market's ATM.
- MP Materials (MP): Owning the Valve While the Night Shift Panics14 October 2025 · Tuesday Target 42/52MP Materials and China's rare-earth squeeze: how the refining choke point, gold collateral and a weekend crypto flush shape the options angle.
- Marvell (MRVL): Japan's Bond Tremor Meets a Market Running on Fumes7 October 2025 · Tuesday Target 41/52How Tokyo's bond shock and a momentum-drunk Wall Street frame a Marvell (MRVL) options setup, and which long-bond auctions matter next.
- Solana (SOLT): Price Discovery With the Data Switched Off30 September 2025 · Tuesday Target 40/52How a shutdown that mutes federal statistics pushes traders toward funding markets and options surfaces, and where Solana (SOLT) fits in.
- Oracle (ORCL): Megawatts Are the New Liquidity23 September 2025 · Tuesday Target 39/52How the AI power buildout works as stealth stimulus, why Oracle (ORCL) sits near the meter, and why index calm hides single-stock risk.
- Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Who Holds the Leash16 September 2025 · Tuesday Target 38/52Why the tape now writes Fed policy, how a record call-heavy expiry rents its calm, and where a bullish chip ETF fits a bearish book.
- Tesla (TSLA): When the Risk-Free Rate Loses Its Adjective9 September 2025 · Tuesday Target 37/52Gold at records with real yields high signals fading trust in sovereign bonds, and why the Tesla (TSLA) options idea is a pure chart trade.
- Silver (SLV): The Tariff Docket Nobody Is Pricing2 September 2025 · Tuesday Target 36/52How a stayed tariff ruling threatens steepeners and melt-ups alike, and why silver's dual thesis sits outside the court's verdict.
- China Internet (KWEB): Whoever Sprays Hardest Owns the Tape26 August 2025 · Tuesday Target 35/52Why US liquidity is tightening under soft Fed talk while China floods its tape, and what that gap means for options on KWEB.
- Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): Cheap Hedges Under Manufactured Calm19 August 2025 · Tuesday Target 34/52Why soft nationalization keeps volatility sedated, why that makes IBIT hedges cheap, and which cracks in the calm deserve attention.
- Apple (AAPL): The Tariff Bill Lands Offshore12 August 2025 · Tuesday Target 33/52Why tariffs are working as a transfer instead of an inflation engine, what that does to the rate-cut path, and where Apple fits the rotation.
- SoFi Technologies (SOFI): Missed Payments Meet the Margin Clerk6 August 2025 · Tuesday Target 32/52The worst student-loan delinquency print in decades, a stealth tariff tax and autopilot funds at full exposure: what SOFI's range means for options.
- Europe (EZU): America's Stimulus, Invoiced to Brussels29 July 2025 · Tuesday Target 31/52Why the US-EU tariff deal acts as stimulus for America billed to Europe, what it does to the euro and EZU, and which prints to watch next.
- Silver (SLV) vs Gold (GLD): Cheap Armor Before the Chamber Stops22 July 2025 · Tuesday Target 30/52Why record highs, an August tariff snap-back and Powell roulette make cheap tech puts and a gold-over-silver spread the sane pairing.
- Ethereum (ETHA): A Casting Call in the Cockpit and a Bullish Condor15 July 2025 · Tuesday Target 29/52How the public hunt for Powell's successor pushes creditors toward the exit, and why a bullish condor on ETHA fits the resulting weather.
- Biotech (XBI): Check the Exits Before the Dollar's Wake8 July 2025 · Tuesday Target 28/52Why the crowded dollar short looks like a squeeze waiting to happen, and why that puts biotech (XBI) on the options shortlist rather than in the book.
- ARK Innovation (ARKK): The Bond Market Reaches for the Extinguisher3 July 2025 · Tuesday Target 27/52Why the deficit bill and a restless long bond turn ARKK into the cleanest test of momentum, and where options fit into that setup.
- Affirm (AFRM): A Ceasefire the Actuaries Refuse to Believe24 June 2025 · Tuesday Target 26/52Why a ceasefire rally, a crude collapse and a buyback blackout add up to complacency, and how that shapes a defined-risk lean in Affirm (AFRM).
- Crude Oil (/CL): A Telegraphed War and a Market That Shrugs18 June 2025 · Tuesday Target 25/52Why a telegraphed US-Iran war has left crude, gold and equity vol oddly calm, and what a Hormuz shock would do to skew, the dollar and that calm.
- Sunrun (RUN): When the Smartest Desks Become the Herd10 June 2025 · Tuesday Target 24/52Why crowded shorts in Sunrun (RUN) become reflexive chain reactions, how deficits feed them, and where options let a trader stay in the room.
- Developed Markets (EFA): Erosion, a Crowded Haven and a Clipped Wing3 June 2025 · Tuesday Target 23/52Why Dimon's dollar warning describes erosion more than collapse, why Big Tech's haven status is fragile, and how an EFA broken-wing butterfly fits.
- S&P Tracker (SPY): When Patient Capital Says Enough27 May 2025 · Tuesday Target 22/52Japan's life insurers are dumping long bonds, the BoJ is bluffing, and short-dated SPY hedges are how I handle a crash-squeeze tape.
- AppLovin (APP): When the Flip Stops Landing14 May 2025 · Tuesday Target 20/52Trump's reversals as a fighting style, the relief rally that feeds on them, and how AppLovin's whipsaw fits an options view of policy flips.
- Developed Markets (EFA): Summer Chop Under Hypersonic Skies6 May 2025 · Tuesday Target 19/52Why a hypersonic strike near Ben Gurion, starvation as leverage and a stumbling Merz all argue for range-bound premium decay in Europe-heavy EFA.
- Bitcoin (IBIT): The Fab Bill Comes Due Later29 April 2025 · Tuesday Target 18/52Reshoring chip fabs is billed as strategy and priced as a subsidy; why that feeds inflation and where Bitcoin options fit the theme.
- Financials (XLF): A Wink From Washington Won't Patch the Fracture24 April 2025 · Tuesday Target 17/52Why softer tariff talk, a hard Beijing and reflexive retail dip-buying leave financials exposed, and what the letter watches next.
- Gold Trust (GLD): Beijing's Mask, Paid for in Treasuries15 April 2025 · Tuesday Target 16/52Why China's quiet Treasury selling and staged calm make gold the one asset that needs no mask, and what the bond market is signalling.
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Hedging After the Tariff Pause Rip9 April 2025 · Tuesday Target 15/52Why the tariff pause rally leaves the Nasdaq unresolved, traded through QQQ, and how a bearish-leaning iron condor hedges the second act.
- Second Leg Down (S&P and DAX): One Debt Jar, Two Spoons3 April 2025 · Tuesday Target 14/52The US market's second leg down, S&P and DAX concentration, tariffs as leverage, and where widening credit spreads turn a trade war into forced selling.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): The Critic Who Swims Upstream For A Living25 March 2025 · Tuesday Target 13/52Why reflexive contrarianism is a critic's habit, and how a quiet Russell (IWM) plus quarter-end pension flows shapes an options stance.
- The Fed (Powell Put): Strategic Confusion as the Real Safety Net24 March 2025 · Tuesday Target 12/52Why Powell's contradictory Fed signals work as a stealth put, and what dollar politics, rearmament and fund flows mean for options premium.
- U.S. Real Estate (IYR): The Quiet Tax Behind the Tariff Noise14 March 2025 · Tuesday Target 11/52Why the interest bill on Washington's debt points to hidden inflation, and how US real estate (IYR) options fit a market pricing fear everywhere.
- Volatility (UVXY): The Tariff Dial and the Inverted Curve6 March 2025 · Tuesday Target 10/52Why tariffs may be a deliberate brake on US growth, and how an inverted VIX futures curve turns UVXY's usual roll drag into a tailwind.
- German Stocks (DAX): A Record High Built on Coalition Gossip26 February 2025 · Tuesday Target 9/52Why the DAX record rally reads as a bull trap: coalition maths, a constitutional debt brake, a stretched chart and the levels on the watchlist.
- Intuitive Machines (LUNR): The Yuan Leak Behind Bitcoin's Next Run19 February 2025 · Tuesday Target 8/52China's leaking yuan as the hidden engine behind Bitcoin's next run, plus why LUNR's returning noise suits a short premium play.
- Materials (XLB): A Raised Floor and a Sector Bumping Its Head12 February 2025 · Tuesday Target 7/52Why a Treasury-engineered flat curve props up index calm while Materials stall, and how that shapes a defined-risk options view on XLB.
- Retail (XRT): Tribute Tariffs and the Dollar's Own Trap5 February 2025 · Tuesday Target 6/52Shock tariffs extract tribute from Mexico and Canada while eroding the dollar's reserve role, and retail (XRT) is where the bill lands first.
- Treasury Bills (SGOV): The Cheap Model That Spooked the Herd28 January 2025 · Tuesday Target 5/52Why the DeepSeek scare misreads what cheaper AI does to GPU demand, and why parked cash in short Treasuries beats gambling on earnings prints.
- Rumble (RUM): Animal Spirits, Tariff Noise and a Loud Consumer22 January 2025 · Tuesday Target 4/52Why tariff rhetoric, a resilient US consumer and returning animal spirits keep volatility bid, and what that means for Rumble (RUM) options.
- U.S. Equities (No Trade): When Prices Run Ahead of the Economy15 January 2025 · Tuesday Target 3/52Why a stretched U.S. equity market can justify sitting out, what expensive hedges cost a portfolio, and which inflation prints decide the next leg.
- IonQ (IONQ): A Range Built by Tight Money and Dilution8 January 2025 · Tuesday Target 2/52IonQ (IONQ) framed as a range-bound options play while the Fed drains liquidity, hedge funds go short and dilution caps the upside.
- S&P 500 (SPY): The Twelve-Month Target Nobody Needs2 January 2025 · Tuesday Target 1/52Why a twelve-month index target for SPY is lazy fiction, which risks the year actually carries, and what an options trader watches instead.
2024
- Rumble (RUM): Cash Runs Low Just as the Repo Buffer Empties23 December 2024 · Tuesday Target 52/52Rumble (RUM) options against thin fund manager cash and an emptying reverse repo facility: why fading liquidity threatens the momentum trade.
- Volatility (VIX): Cheap Insurance For The Swan In The Bushes18 December 2024 · Tuesday Target 51/52How a defined-risk VIX call spread turns a hawkish Fed, a wobbling Magnificent Seven and a Treasury liquidity drain into cheap portfolio insurance.
- Rumble (RUM): Rare Chances That Refuse to Stay Rare11 December 2024 · Tuesday Target 50/52Rumble (RUM) against tariff threats, sold volatility and China's easing turn: why rare chances keep recurring and how a defined-risk piece fits.
- Crypto Miners: A Miner Against the Doom Daddy's Sermon3 December 2024 · Tuesday Target 49/52Why calling the US fiscal system a Ponzi scheme fails, how record leverage raises the stakes for options traders, and where a crypto miner fits.
- Amgen (AMGN): When The Bitcoin Loop Meets Long Gamma27 November 2024 · Tuesday Target 48/52Why MicroStrategy's leveraged bitcoin loop is a roulette table, why dealers keep the tape calm, and where a bearish Amgen strangle stands.
- Pharma (XLV): The Downtrend Under Escalation Economics19 November 2024 · Tuesday Target 47/52Why the pharma downtrend suits options better than headline geopolitics, and what escalation and index concentration change for the setup.
- Trump Media (DJT): A Late Crowd Meets the Liquidity Wave13 November 2024 · Tuesday Target 46/52Why bitcoin's surge, a hesitant retail comeback and volatility priced for calm make Trump Media (DJT) the place to read the mood of the Trump trade.
- The Buyback Trap: Debt, Shrinking Equity and the Orange Effect6 November 2024 · Tuesday Target 45/52How debt-funded buybacks hollow out a company's equity while a surging post-election dollar, tariffs and Iran risk shake the tape around it.
- Trump Media (DJT): The Story Versus the Share Count30 October 2024 · Tuesday Target 44/52Trump Media (DJT) as a mania versus dilution setup, with election hedging, Beijing's stimulus and Treasury repo strains as the backdrop.
- U.S. Real Estate (IYR): The Landlord Feels the Bond Market Shake23 October 2024 · Tuesday Target 43/52Why surging bond yields, exiting insiders and Beijing's buybacks point to a bearish tilt on U.S. real estate (IYR), and what to watch next.
- U.S. Oil (USO): When the Target Arrives Before the Stimulus15 October 2024 · Tuesday Target 42/52Why China's weak credit prints, hedge fund capitulation and Trump's tax blitz all lean on oil, and what USO reaching its target means next.
- Volatility (UVXY): The Hangover After Beijing's Sugar High9 October 2024 · Tuesday Target 41/52UVXY as a way to own fear itself while China's stimulus rally stalls, Treasury yields climb and a nervous election draws close.
- China: Entering While the Happy Gas Runs Thin1 October 2024 · Tuesday Target 40/52Why an options entry on China came during Golden Week, while bubbles inflate everywhere and a port strike threatens fresh inflation.
- Intuitive Machines (LUNR): A Rocket While the Fed Chews Paper17 September 2024 · Tuesday Target 38/52Why an oversized Fed cut on shaky data says more about option premium than about inflation, and where a lunar lander stock fits into the picture.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB): When the Crowd Hands You the Exit11 September 2024 · Tuesday Target 37/52Rocket Lab's Reddit-driven run, a tepid tech bounce and a CPI print steering the Fed's first cut: why an anticlimax suits an options trade.
- Oil (USO): Smoke, Mirrors and the Wait for Chinese Stimulus5 September 2024 · Tuesday Target 36/52Why an OPEC+ output reversal, a hot payrolls wager on yields and the wait for Chinese stimulus leave USO options in limbo, and what to watch next.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): Small Caps While the Doves Cheer in the Dark27 August 2024 · Tuesday Target 35/52Small caps and IWM options as Powell claims victory too early, tariffs and wars loom, and Nvidia's earnings test how much of the AI trade is hope.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB): Election Nerves Meet a Deflating Premium20 August 2024 · Tuesday Target 34/52Why a November election, fading Treasury fairy dust and a post drop rally leave Rocket Lab (RKLB) options priced for a volatility contraction.
- Portfolio Update: The Currents Holding a Nervous Market Up13 August 2024 · Tuesday Target 33/52Why Fed liquidity, negative gamma and a wide-open buyback window explain a market that shakes hard but refuses to sink.
- ARK Innovation (ARKK): Borrowed Yen and a Fund Built for Swings6 August 2024 · Tuesday Target 32/53How the yen carry trade unwind reaches ARK Innovation (ARKK), why thin tech liquidity reprices option premium, and what the BOJ decides next.
- Election Trade: The Curve Winks and the Sky Stays Put30 July 2024 · Tuesday Target 31/53A steepening yield curve that winks, a padded JOLTS print and a routine correction: the macro read behind the latest US election trade.
- Tech Trade: Reading Fear in the Option Chain After the Rout23 July 2024 · Tuesday Target 30/53Tech after the rout, the macro and political noise around it, and how a fear-priced option chain changes the trade.
Elite Trader Program
Watch the portfolio run live
Every Wednesday, Elite Traders watch me run a real portfolio live. The full calls, a growing lesson library and 5 hours one-on-one with me a year come with the program.