Why Skip a McDonald's Earnings Trade

By Juri von Randow · 5 November 2026 · Free Lesson · 2 min

I priced a McDonald's earnings grenade, found a 2.8% break-even window, and passed. On report day it closed 6.5% higher.

The Only Maybe

Of all the earnings grenades on the board, McDonald's was the one where I thought, maybe. McDonald's usually doesn't move much on earnings, and a quiet stock is what this setup wants. I checked the latest reports, and they usually came in at about two percent.

A 2.8% Window

The break-even window was only 2.8 percent to the upside and 2.8 percent to the downside. That felt too small. I checked the December monthly as well, and its window was also very small. Not enough room, so I passed.

Two Grenades at Once

The report also landed in the week of the election. An earnings grenade plus an election grenade, two grenades at the same time: I was not so sure that is a good idea. And with a squeeze to the upside already running, I said no.

Not Trading Is a Position

It is nice sometimes not to trade. I had a look at Booking and CVS too, and none of those grenades would have worked. McDonald's closed 6.5 percent higher on report day, more than twice the window. I am quite happy we did not do it.

What the clip covers

• McDonald's usually doesn't move much. And of course today it moves.
• earnings grenade plus the election grenade, two grenades at the same time is a little bit much
• The window was like, two point eight percent up, two point eight percent down.
• I checked the latest earnings... These were all two percent moves.
• maybe I'm gonna check the monthly, right? The December, also very small window.
• I had a look at Booking and I didn't like it. Wouldn't have worked... CVS. None of these grenades would have worked

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Earnings Grenade · Expected Move