Iron Condor write-ups
Selling a put spread and a call spread around a range, so time decay pays while the underlying stays inside it. 21 Tuesday Target write-ups use it, newest first. Closed trades show their result.
- China Large-Cap (FXI): The Summit Week the Options Overprice10 November 2026 · Tuesday Target 46/52Record inflows, a Trump-Xi summit and China tech earnings in one week; why FXI's options charge more for the drama than the fund usually delivers.
- The Dow (DIA): Fencing the Quietest Index on the Tape3 November 2026 · Tuesday Target 45/52Why the Dow sat still while tech cracked, why its options price more motion than it shows, and what November's prints mean for a range trade.
- Taking the Other Side of a Put Stampede (SPY)20 October 2026 · Tuesday Target 43/52Why a stampede into index puts leaves SPY's December options expensive, and how a lopsided iron condor collects from the panic.
- Long Bonds (TLT): Selling Storm Prices Into a Drizzle6 October 2026 · Tuesday Target 41/52Long Treasury options price a crash the tape refuses to deliver; why that gap exists, how an iron condor sells it, and the prints that could end it.
- Energy Stocks (XLE): The Ceiling, the Floor and the Rent Between29 September 2026 · Tuesday Target 40/52Why oil's managed ceiling and a shut strait's floor leave XLE range-bound with rich option premium, and what could break the range.
- ExxonMobil (XOM): Collecting a War Premium on a Quiet Chart8 September 2026 · Tuesday Target 37/52ExxonMobil (XOM) against costly crude, record diesel and rising long yields: what the letter argues about energy volatility and what to watch next.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): Capital Has a Price Again, So Does Fear25 August 2026 · Tuesday Target 35/52CrowdStrike (CRWD) as free money ends: what higher yields, an AI compute bill and a Jackson Hole week mean for pricing fear into earnings options.
- Long Treasuries (TLT): Exhausted Sellers, Capped Rallies18 August 2026 · Tuesday Target 34/52How AI borrowing crowds the Treasury market, why exhausted bond bears leave TLT range-bound, and what that means for options premium.
- Brazil (EWZ): Rent From a Standoff While the Pentagon Put Frays21 July 2026 · Tuesday Target 30/52Why a market leaning on a single backstop, a Hormuz oil shock and a Brazil ETF stuck in a moving-average tangle add up to an options angle on EWZ.What came of it: The Trade Alert on EWZ closed on 28 July 2026, after 7 days, at +7.1% on the capital at risk.
- Korea (EWY): The Toll Booth After the Bypass Opens14 July 2026 · Tuesday Target 29/52Korea (EWY) as a toll collector losing traffic to the SK Hynix bypass, and why post-flush option premium looks rich to my models.What came of it: The Trade Alert on EWY closed on 31 July 2026, after 21 days, at +15% on the capital at risk.
- BlackBerry (BB): Motion Mistaken for Control30 June 2026 · Tuesday Target 27/52BlackBerry (BB) went parabolic while Hormuz, Warsh and Beijing showed how little anyone controls; what rich premium means for patient traders.
- Crude Oil Futures (/CL): Lifeboats, Blockades and a Fat Fear Premium14 April 2026 · Tuesday Target 16/52How a mechanical rally, a timed Hormuz blockade and banks hedging their own product leave crude carrying the market's fattest fear premium.What came of it: The Trade Alert on /CLN6 closed on 26 May 2026, after 40 days, at -7.3% on the capital at risk.
- United States Oil (USO): Fear Priced Like a War That Never Starts17 March 2026 · Tuesday Target 12/52Why crash insurance props up the index, why oil volatility outruns the Hormuz standoff, and what the range in USO says before triple witching.What came of it: The Trade Alert on USO closed on 31 March 2026, after 5 days, at +27% on the capital at risk.
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): A Miner Standing in the Fire Exit16 December 2025 · Tuesday Target 51/52Why a bitcoin miner turns into an indirect hedge when ETF inflows pause, equities sleepwalk and credit desks quietly buy protection.
- Long Treasuries (TLT): The State Lends, the Pipes Refill11 November 2025 · Tuesday Target 46/52Why federal nuclear credit, paused QT and a reopened Treasury build a bid for TLT, and what an options desk waits for before trading the range.What came of it: I closed this trade on 29 December 2025, after 48 days, at +25% on the capital at risk.
- U.S. Oil (USO): The Flood Behind the Dam and the Calm in Crude4 November 2025 · Tuesday Target 45/52Repo stress masks a Treasury cash hoard poised to flood back into markets, and why boxed-in crude in USO is where that calm gets sold.
- Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): Cheap Hedges Under Manufactured Calm19 August 2025 · Tuesday Target 34/52Why soft nationalization keeps volatility sedated, why that makes IBIT hedges cheap, and which cracks in the calm deserve attention.What came of it: I closed this trade on 23 September 2025, after 36 days, at +5.1% on the capital at risk.
- Ethereum (ETHA): A Casting Call in the Cockpit and a Bullish Condor15 July 2025 · Tuesday Target 29/52How the public hunt for Powell's successor pushes creditors toward the exit, and why a bullish condor on ETHA fits the resulting weather.What came of it: I closed this trade on 23 September 2025, after 71 days, at -2.6% on the capital at risk.
- Developed Markets (EFA): Summer Chop Under Hypersonic Skies6 May 2025 · Tuesday Target 19/52Why a hypersonic strike near Ben Gurion, starvation as leverage and a stumbling Merz all argue for range-bound premium decay in Europe-heavy EFA.What came of it: I closed this trade on 22 May 2025, after 17 days, at -3.7% on the capital at risk.
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Hedging After the Tariff Pause Rip9 April 2025 · Tuesday Target 15/52Why the tariff pause rally leaves the Nasdaq unresolved, traded through QQQ, and how a bearish-leaning iron condor hedges the second act.What came of it: The hedge went on as a QQQ iron condor; I closed it on 19 May 2025, after 45 days, at -80.6% on the capital at risk.
- Materials (XLB): A Raised Floor and a Sector Bumping Its Head12 February 2025 · Tuesday Target 7/52Why a Treasury-engineered flat curve props up index calm while Materials stall, and how that shapes a defined-risk options view on XLB.What came of it: I closed this trade on 7 March 2025, after 28 days, at +50% on the capital at risk.
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